Models of Consensus for Multiple Agent Systems

Models of consensus are used to manage multiple agent systems in order to choose between different recommendations provided by the system. It is assumed that there is a central agent that solicits recommendations or plans from other agents. That agent the n determines the consensus of the other agents, and chooses the resultant consensus recommendation or plan. Voting schemes such as this have been used in a variety of domains, including air traffic control. This paper uses an analytic model to study the use of consensus in multiple agent systems. The binomial model is used to study the probability that the consensus judgment is correct or incorrect. That basic model is extended to account for both different levels of agent competence and unequal prior odds. The analysis of that model is critical in the investigation of multiple agent systems, since the model leads us to conclude that in some cases consensus judgment is not appropriate. In addition, the results allow us to determine how many agents should be used to develop consensus decisions, which agents should be used to develop consensus decisions and under which conditions the consensus model should be used.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1994

Double Compact Objects I: The Significance Of The Common Envelope On Merger Rates

The last decade of observational and theoretical developments in stellar and binary evolution provides an opportunity to incorporate major improvements to the predictions from populations synthesis models. We compute the Galactic merger rates for NS-NS, BH-NS, and BH-BH mergers with the StarTrack code. The most important revisions include: updated wind mass loss rates (allowing for stellar mass black holes up to 80 \msun), a realistic treatment of the common envelope phase (a process that can affect merger rates by 2--3 orders of magnitude), and a qualitatively new neutron star/black hole mass distribution (consistent with the observed "mass gap"). Our findings include: (i) The binding energy of the envelope plays a pivotal role in determining whether a binary merges within a Hubble time. (ii) Our description of natal kicks from supernovae plays an important role, especially for the formation of BH-BH systems. (iii) The masses of BH-BH systems can be substantially increased in the case of low metallicities or weak winds. (iv) Certain combinations of parameters underpredict the Galactic NS-NS merger rate, and can be ruled out. {\em (v)} Models incorporating delayed supernovae do not agree with the observed NS/BH "mass gap", in accordance with our previous work. This is the first in a series of three papers. The second paper will study the merger rates of double compact objects as a function of redshift, star formation rate, and metallicity. In the third paper we will present the detection rates for gravitational wave observatories, using up-to-date signal waveforms and sensitivity curves.Comment: 41 pages, 20 figures, accepted for ApJ & new model

New Approaches to Olefin Cross-Metathesis

New methodology for the selective cross-metathesis (CM) of terminal olefins employing ruthenium benzylidene 1 is described.1 CM with symmetric internal olefins was found to provide a useful means for homologating terminal olefins to protected allylic alcohols, amines, and esters. Due to the limited commercial availability of symmetric internal olefins, a two-step CM procedure was developed in which terminal olefins were first homodimerized prior to the CM reaction. Terminal olefins with allylic methyl substituents were observed to provide CM products in diminished yield albeit with markedly improved trans-selectivity. Reaction rates were measured for CM reactions utilizing butenediol and allyl alcohol derivatives, and the results demonstrated distinct advantages in reaction rate and stereoselectivity for reactions employing the disubstituted olefins. In the course of studies of substrates with allylic oxygen substituents, a new CM application was discovered involving the metathesis of acrolein acetal derivatives with terminal olefins. Acrolein acetals, including asymmetric variants derived from tartaric acid, proved to be exceptionally robust and trans-selective CM substrates. In related work, a pinacol-derived vinyl boronate was also found to be a reactive CM partner, providing a novel means for converting terminal olefins into precursors for the Suzuki coupling reaction

Ring-Closing Metathesis of Olefinic Peptides: Design, Synthesis, and Structural Characterization of Macrocyclic Helical Peptides

Heptapeptides containing residues with terminal olefin-derivatized side chains (3 and 4) have been treated with ruthenium alkylidene 1 and undergone facile ring-closing olefin metathesis (RCM) to give 21- and 23-membered macrocyclic peptides (5 and 6). The primary structures of peptides 3 and 4 were based upon a previously studied heptapeptide (2), which was shown to adopt a predominantly 3_(10)-helical conformation in CDCl_3 solution and an α-helical conformation in the solid state. Circular dichroism, IR, and solution-phase ^1H NMR studies strongly suggested that acyclic precursors 3 and 4 and the fully saturated macrocyclic products 7 and 8 also adopted helical conformations in apolar organic solvents. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction of cyclic peptide 8 showed it to exist as a right-handed 3_(10)-helix up to the fifth residue. Solution-phase NMR structures of both acyclic peptide 4 and cyclic peptide 8 in CD_2Cl_2 indicated that the acyclic diene assumes a loosely 3_(10)-helical conformation, which is considerably rigidified upon macrocyclization. The relative ease of introducing carbon−carbon bonds into peptide secondary structures by RCM and the predicted metabolic stability of these bonds renders olefin metathesis an exceptional methodology for the synthesis of rigidified peptide architectures

Carotid intimal-media thickness as a surrogate for cardiovascular disease events in trials of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors

BACKGROUND: Surrogate measures for cardiovascular disease events have the potential to increase greatly the efficiency of clinical trials. A leading candidate for such a surrogate is the progression of intima-media thickness (IMT) of the carotid artery; much experience has been gained with this endpoint in trials of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). METHODS AND RESULTS: We examine two separate systems of criteria that have been proposed to define surrogate endpoints, based on clinical and statistical arguments. We use published results and a formal meta-analysis to evaluate whether progression of carotid IMT meets these criteria for HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). IMT meets clinical-based criteria to serve as a surrogate endpoint for cardiovascular events in statin trials, based on relative efficiency, linkage to endpoints, and congruency of effects. Results from a meta-analysis and post-trial follow-up from a single published study suggest that IMT meets established statistical criteria by accounting for intervention effects in regression models. CONCLUSION: Carotid IMT progression meets accepted definitions of a surrogate for cardiovascular disease endpoints in statin trials. This does not, however, establish that it may serve universally as a surrogate marker in trials of other agents

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from the CHARGE consortium identifies common variants associated with carotid intima media thickness and plaque

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque determined by ultrasonography are established measures of subclinical atherosclerosis that each predicts future cardiovascular disease events. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 31,211 participants of European ancestry from nine large studies in the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. We then sought additional evidence to support our findings among 11,273 individuals using data from seven additional studies. In the combined meta-analysis, we identified three genomic regions associated with common carotid intima media thickness and two different regions associated with the presence of carotid plaque (P < 5 × 10 -8). The associated SNPs mapped in or near genes related to cellular signaling, lipid metabolism and blood pressure homeostasis, and two of the regions were associated with coronary artery disease (P < 0.006) in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium. Our findings may provide new insight into pathways leading to subclinical atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular events

Весовые соотношения тимуса и надпочечников у антенатально погибших плодов

ТИМУСНАДПОЧЕЧНИКИтимомегалиядети первого года жизнидети раннего возрастаМЛАДЕНЕЦ, СМЕРТНОСТЬЭНДОКРИННОЙ СИСТЕМЫ БОЛЕЗНИСМЕРТНОСТЬ ДЕТСКАЯсиндром внезапной детской смерт